President Trump hasn’t been sworn in but he has already ensured faultlines which have been visible for years, are unmistakeable. Putin and Trump are bookending Europe, and weeks after Aleppo fell Trump has been clear that a) he is hostile to the EU and mirrors Putin’s aim of breaking it open, and has clearly placed the Dickhead Spring of the Breiteers at the source of it. I don’t quite understand the French Presidential system as well as I should, I have a friend in Paris who says Le Pen’s win feels inevitable but am assured it is not that straightforward. People are looking at World War 2 and the rise of Hitler but the dramatic changes we are seeing in alliances is more reminiscent of pre-World War 1. Only this time we are the enfant terrible of Europe, prone to acts of reckless self regard. Micheal Gove thinks he got one over on our PM by meeting Trump to do a puff piece for Murdoch press. Murdoch has already negotiated with Trump. There are two tides. One rolling in and one rolling out. Our Dickhead Spring is rolling out, but they have the character of a tide that could take everything with them.
It matters not that the EU project is unstable, and that much blame lies there for weakening democracy to protect the Euro project and consolidate financial power. If we become the aggressors, history does not have to remember this. Our opposition front bench is locked in by the left wing culture I have recorded here for the past 6 years and their aims are roughly aligned to Putin and Trump so they will not budge. Underneath it all a centre position is reforming and grown ups in the room are beginning to talk and recognise the importance of our stabilising institutions, but our PM is weak, the shit flinging tribal monkey wheel of our political discourse is blocking reason, and only faux tribalism offered by a dying political media culture is on offer. The grown ups have left the room while narcissist leaders have power and we are past the point where anything but crisis can solve this.
Inequality has reached the levels that history tells us large scale events will solve, and the death of the liberal class and disintegration of the left into its purest most obnoxious form, indicates our institutions have weakened. If you are not scared right now you probably should be. TO act now is to choose who you are, and what you stand for. You can choose empty tribalism, pushing the disintegration of systems or you can choose to be part of the new centre position that has to form. We probably can’t avoid crisis but that doesn’t mean you should not continue. Whatever happens now a centre position which encompasses the instability and inequality that concerned Keynes and Hayek has to emerge.
We are in many ways in a better position than before World War 1 and 2. We have the thoughts and ideas that were born then, we have the newest manifestation of that crisis to observe and learn from, so we can reconsider those ideas in context. Am not sure we are any smarter than we were then, I don’t think people change, even over centuries. BUt we were pretty smart then and we came out of it anew.